Rating association FUTURE RATING has complied many experts opinions and analyses from a variety of confidential sources, and distills them in his “Forecast 2011”.
He summarizes the main forecasts:
1. Information technology industry will absorb a few related industries (games, money transfers, currency speculation, registration and other services for legal entities) and grow as a whole at 170 - 200%. Probability - 97%.
2. The gradual decline of the traditional oil and gas countries, because of new mining technologies that dramatically reduce the cost of international prices of oil and gas. Thus, by the end of 2010 shale gas production in the U.S. reached 51 billion cubic meters a year. In the first half of 2010, the world's largest fuel companies have spent $ 21 billion in assets, which are related to shale gas.
Russia especially hard hit by the reduction of oil and gas revenues, due to an excess of power in the world, which further increase the market supply. Advent of a new wave of crisis will bring down oil prices. Also, demand for Russian oil contract in Russia itself, in connection with the obligation of the introduction of Euro 4 fuel standards in 2012: as in Russian crude oils increased content of sulfur compounds, the Russian oil will lose the European markets, including in their own cities European part. (73% probability)
3. A new wave of bank failures, the collapse of derivatives and stop lending in 2014 the total probability of financial crisis in 2015 - 71%
4. Reduction of savings channeled to investment in 2013, due to a combination of factors: the ruin of insurance companies (the trend increase in the number of natural and technological disasters there), the inflationary shock of 2012 and the withdrawal of retirement savings generation of baby boomers. Probability - 71%
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Conclusions.
New Business Models, New Markets, New Opportunities Emerge. Emerging markets, already an important growth factor in the post-recession global economy, will gain additional importance and power. For example, a new “global middle class” will emerge, with more disposable income, leading to increased opportunity for businesses around the world – big and small. More than 1 billion new middle class consumers will be added to the global economic community, most of whom will be younger than their counterparts in industrialized nations with older demographics.
Technology Becomes Ubiquitous. Technology advances will change how consumers live their lives and perform everyday tasks. In addition, businesses will be transformed as a result of global growth of the Internet, high bandwidth cloud computing, advanced analytical tools and mobile services.
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