10 predictions for 2012 from Roger McNamee and Mike Maples, two leading US VCs. You will see that they make this prediction with only 50% confidence, which I think was lower confidence than all bar one of their other predictions.
#1 HiperWeb
http://www.chimehosting.com/moonalice/TechInvestingHypotheses.pdf
Forrester CEO George Colony was perhaps the most interesting one I saw at Le Web last week. He had two big points to make:
Web service/application architectures will shift to more local processing and storage. This is a natural result of the fact that processor and storage technologies are improving faster than networks.
Social networks are so well penetrated now that there is little room to grow – that includes penetration into the population and hours spent per day by the active users.
I want to focus on the second of these today. Both have been bouncing round my mind since I saw the presentation on Thursday, but I think the second is more topical. Firstly it was the subject of debate on Fred Wilson’s Avc.com from yesterday, and secondly it is more pertinent to the activity of most of the readers of this blog – as entrepreneurs, investors and consumers.
My first reaction to the argument that social is close to saturation point made sense to me, and most of the people I spoke to about it at the conference afterwards agreed. The reasoning is logical and comes from research Forrester conducted research with over 1m US consumers which found that ‘social is running out of hours and people’. Taking the hours piece first – people are spending more time on social than they are volunteering, praying, emailing and using telephones, and more than they are exercising, and only a little bit less than shopping and childcare. His argument is that people simply don’t have much more time to give to social. The second piece of the argument is that at around 80% in the developed world social is already so well penetrated that growth can’t come from adding new users either.
Colony’s conclusion from this is not that social will go away, but that the next generation of social apps will be about doing things more efficiently and saving time. That contrasts with many of the current crop of social apps where the use case is often killing time.
Fred Wilson posted the video below yesterday and invited debate in the comments of his post. Many commenters were simply outright critical of Colony, but several drew the distinction between social as an app, which might be peaking, and social as a platform, which is only just getting started, and this I think probably hits the nail on the head. Applications are where people spend time, platforms are where things happen. There might not be much time left in the day for all of us to spend much more time in social apps, but we can all increase our engagement with social by using the platform components more – that means hitting more like buttons, sharing more generally, connecting more sites to Facebook and Twitter, and using social more to help discover online content and interact with the brands and companies we love.
Nic Brisbourne is a partner at DFJ Esprit view
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xmtw7s_nic-brisbourne-defends-london-s-entrepreneurial-honor_tech
2012/01/06
2011/12/23
There is double dip predicted by John Connor
Slipping into a double-dip recession. Economic crisis seems to be like W, how it was predicted by
John Connor http://futurerating.blogspot.com/2011/01/forecast-on-second-decade-of-21-century.html
John Connor summarized the saga with rating agencies, which have been named the chief evil to the world economy. And he shows how will develop global economy in 2012
John Connor http://futurerating.blogspot.com/2011/01/forecast-on-second-decade-of-21-century.html
John Connor summarized the saga with rating agencies, which have been named the chief evil to the world economy. And he shows how will develop global economy in 2012
2011/11/14
Bernard Lietaer. How to save the financial system
Conventional Approach to Fund a Social or Environmental Project
- designed by Bernard Lietaer
Conventional means includes among others paying all labor required at market rates for all the relevant work.
The purpose of the system is to encourage green and healthy activities, beautify the neighborhood, and generally improve the quality of life in the neighborhood. The starting point was a survey with the question: What would be most desirable to the local resident population. The answer, particularly for the inhabitants of the apartment buildings, was to have access to a few square meters of land for gardening, for growing vegetables and flowers. The city provides access to the land: An old factory site that had been demolished and the land was left untended, plots of land that are waiting for building permits, a back part of a park, even the center of a large traffic roundabout. The land is made available for rent on a month to month basis.
Local NGO's whose mission is in alignment with that intention would also be invited to get involved.
There are two types of national currency flows that would be necessary. The first one is direct: subsidies or city projects paid out from tax income (or through debt, but that would involve over time the same amount of tax income, plus interest, only in a delayed way). The second channel is through non-profits activities.
More detail about new idea of Bernard Lietaer (euros architect) see on
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/139198.html
- designed by Bernard Lietaer
Conventional means includes among others paying all labor required at market rates for all the relevant work.
The purpose of the system is to encourage green and healthy activities, beautify the neighborhood, and generally improve the quality of life in the neighborhood. The starting point was a survey with the question: What would be most desirable to the local resident population. The answer, particularly for the inhabitants of the apartment buildings, was to have access to a few square meters of land for gardening, for growing vegetables and flowers. The city provides access to the land: An old factory site that had been demolished and the land was left untended, plots of land that are waiting for building permits, a back part of a park, even the center of a large traffic roundabout. The land is made available for rent on a month to month basis.
Local NGO's whose mission is in alignment with that intention would also be invited to get involved.
There are two types of national currency flows that would be necessary. The first one is direct: subsidies or city projects paid out from tax income (or through debt, but that would involve over time the same amount of tax income, plus interest, only in a delayed way). The second channel is through non-profits activities.
More detail about new idea of Bernard Lietaer (euros architect) see on
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/139198.html
2011/11/11
Peter Thiel initiated technology fund
The Thiel Foundation will award 20 young people cash grants of $100,000 to further their innovative scientific and technical ideas.
http://futurerating.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-peter-thiel-initiative.html
Rating of disruptive technology ideas will be done by Future Europe Association.
TOP 10 of disruptive technology
1. Mobile in general (Geolocation in particular)
By 2012, smartphone shipments are expected to exceed the sum of desktop and notebook PCs, according to Morgan Stanley research. Mobile payment platform – the most important technology for future
2. Real-time data connectedness. This is secret weapon of Google and other company which take control over many sites, marketing platforms and social networks
3. Clean energy including water purification. Future scarcity of water makes a demand of water purification technology with simultaneous production of energy
4. Discount E-commerce
Members-only retail site offering collective discounts, like Groupon, which reached $1 billion in revenue in three years, versus six years for Google
5. SaaS and the ‘cloud’
6. Internet and mobile social network
7. 3d home video
8. Trading software
9. Online interactive games
10. 5G and LTE
http://futurerating.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-peter-thiel-initiative.html
Rating of disruptive technology ideas will be done by Future Europe Association.
TOP 10 of disruptive technology
1. Mobile in general (Geolocation in particular)
By 2012, smartphone shipments are expected to exceed the sum of desktop and notebook PCs, according to Morgan Stanley research. Mobile payment platform – the most important technology for future
2. Real-time data connectedness. This is secret weapon of Google and other company which take control over many sites, marketing platforms and social networks
3. Clean energy including water purification. Future scarcity of water makes a demand of water purification technology with simultaneous production of energy
4. Discount E-commerce
Members-only retail site offering collective discounts, like Groupon, which reached $1 billion in revenue in three years, versus six years for Google
5. SaaS and the ‘cloud’
6. Internet and mobile social network
7. 3d home video
8. Trading software
9. Online interactive games
10. 5G and LTE
2011/11/02
Vision about early venture investment
Here's some highlights of the different strategies among these seed- to early-stage investors.
Dave McClure of 500 Startups: Strategy - "diversified." The fund looks to make up to 100 investments in a year, with the understanding that "most" companies will fail (as they typically do across the board). Not surprisingly, Dave has little time to spend with each company. Dave will look to invest about $50,000 to $100,000 to prove out a startup's thesis and reach milestones. He'll do follow-on rounds with companies that are hitting those miletsones. Dave focuses more on M&A exits, as opposed to big billion-dollar exits. To this end, he's not as worried about being diluted by later-stage funds getting in on the deals. He believes many founders will be inclined to sell their company for $25 million more often than not.
Jed Katz of Javelin Venture Partners: Strategy - "traditional." Javelin invests in about six deals a year, committing anywhere between $200,000 and $2 million. Javelin will only do seed investments if he and his partners are certain they will follow on with a Series A round. Unlike 500 Startups, Javelin's team spends "a lot" of time with their founders.
Manu Kumar of K-9 Ventures: Strategy - "selective." Manu makes four to five investments a year, and commits anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000. He's looking for home-runs. Because Manu is looking for big wins, he also doesn't invest in any company that's valued at $5 million.
Thomas Korte of AngelPad: Strategy - "incubator." The group invests in 40 companies a year and is always the first money in. Entrepreneurs spend three months with AngelPad. Those entering the program receive $20,000 from AngelPad and $100,000 from two un-named VCs who've backed AngelPad.
http://vator.tv/news/2011-11-02-which-early-stage-startup-strategy-is-the-best
Dave McClure of 500 Startups: Strategy - "diversified." The fund looks to make up to 100 investments in a year, with the understanding that "most" companies will fail (as they typically do across the board). Not surprisingly, Dave has little time to spend with each company. Dave will look to invest about $50,000 to $100,000 to prove out a startup's thesis and reach milestones. He'll do follow-on rounds with companies that are hitting those miletsones. Dave focuses more on M&A exits, as opposed to big billion-dollar exits. To this end, he's not as worried about being diluted by later-stage funds getting in on the deals. He believes many founders will be inclined to sell their company for $25 million more often than not.
Jed Katz of Javelin Venture Partners: Strategy - "traditional." Javelin invests in about six deals a year, committing anywhere between $200,000 and $2 million. Javelin will only do seed investments if he and his partners are certain they will follow on with a Series A round. Unlike 500 Startups, Javelin's team spends "a lot" of time with their founders.
Manu Kumar of K-9 Ventures: Strategy - "selective." Manu makes four to five investments a year, and commits anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000. He's looking for home-runs. Because Manu is looking for big wins, he also doesn't invest in any company that's valued at $5 million.
Thomas Korte of AngelPad: Strategy - "incubator." The group invests in 40 companies a year and is always the first money in. Entrepreneurs spend three months with AngelPad. Those entering the program receive $20,000 from AngelPad and $100,000 from two un-named VCs who've backed AngelPad.
http://vator.tv/news/2011-11-02-which-early-stage-startup-strategy-is-the-best
2011/08/08
The forecast of the global economic crisis
The most severe economic crisis in 70 years begins these days.
This was warned Edward Mushinsky in an article for the Russian newspaper
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/27416.html
U.S. resolve to save the dollar as world reserve currency and sharply tightened monetary policy by increasing interest rates.
It will be first collapsed real estate market in the U.S. and other countries where was applicable mortgage schemes on the American model.
This will be followed by a repetition of the Great Depression, ie, deflationary collapse of the economy and the collapse of financial markets.
This was warned Edward Mushinsky in an article for the Russian newspaper
http://vsocial.livejournal.com/27416.html
U.S. resolve to save the dollar as world reserve currency and sharply tightened monetary policy by increasing interest rates.
It will be first collapsed real estate market in the U.S. and other countries where was applicable mortgage schemes on the American model.
This will be followed by a repetition of the Great Depression, ie, deflationary collapse of the economy and the collapse of financial markets.
2011/07/26
Mobile payment service #1
Dwolla launched its product in December and differentiated itself not only with its midwest roots but also its cash-based network approach that allows users to pay directly from their bank accounts. By combining this with location-based technology and social networking tools, Dwolla has been able to build a next-generation payment system that bypasses the current credit and debit networks and offers some attractive benefits.
Square, which does utilize existing credit networks, took 10 months to hit $1 million in daily transactions and is now up to $4 million in transactions a day. Dwolla was able to reach the $1 million mark in about seven months. It has about 30,000 users on its network.
CEO and co-founder Ben Milne said Dwolla’s growth validates the power of tapping cash networks and applying new technology and APIs to help build a modern payment network.
“When you talk about cash, it’s not represented in the marketplace electronically. If you’re paying with a phone or on a website, what is the cash equivalent? There is more money moving through system through cash than credit. It’s an underserved market and it’s massive,” Milne said.
Dwolla transactions fees are capped at 25 cents per transaction, which is lower than PayPal. And users are able to send money to their social networking contacts on Twitter and Facebook. Merchants are able to accept payments without adding extra hardware and using Dwolla’s system, they don’t have to store credit information, which limits fraud. And with Dwolla’s Spots mobile payment service, users can pay for offline goods without using credit or physical cash. Dwolla also enables banks to offer users instant access to their bank accounts from mobile devices using its FiSync service. So far, 15 banks are signed on to use FiSync.
Dwolla still faces challenges in replicating Square’s success, however. It has less name recognition and it seems to have less traction with merchants by comparison. But Milne believes that as more financial institutions sign-up and give their consumers access to mobile payments from their bank accounts, usage will rise. Users are also learning about the service through word of mouth, he said.
Dwolla is showing that this cash-based approach is viable and it’s something that shouldn’t be overlooked in the mobile payments race. EWise, another payment provider, uses what it calls secure vault payments, a form of online banking epayments, to help users pay for things online and through their mobile phone. Users can log-in to their SVP at the time of check-out and quickly fund a purchase from their bank account at cheaper rates than credit card transactions.
Square, which does utilize existing credit networks, took 10 months to hit $1 million in daily transactions and is now up to $4 million in transactions a day. Dwolla was able to reach the $1 million mark in about seven months. It has about 30,000 users on its network.
CEO and co-founder Ben Milne said Dwolla’s growth validates the power of tapping cash networks and applying new technology and APIs to help build a modern payment network.
“When you talk about cash, it’s not represented in the marketplace electronically. If you’re paying with a phone or on a website, what is the cash equivalent? There is more money moving through system through cash than credit. It’s an underserved market and it’s massive,” Milne said.
Dwolla transactions fees are capped at 25 cents per transaction, which is lower than PayPal. And users are able to send money to their social networking contacts on Twitter and Facebook. Merchants are able to accept payments without adding extra hardware and using Dwolla’s system, they don’t have to store credit information, which limits fraud. And with Dwolla’s Spots mobile payment service, users can pay for offline goods without using credit or physical cash. Dwolla also enables banks to offer users instant access to their bank accounts from mobile devices using its FiSync service. So far, 15 banks are signed on to use FiSync.
Dwolla still faces challenges in replicating Square’s success, however. It has less name recognition and it seems to have less traction with merchants by comparison. But Milne believes that as more financial institutions sign-up and give their consumers access to mobile payments from their bank accounts, usage will rise. Users are also learning about the service through word of mouth, he said.
Dwolla is showing that this cash-based approach is viable and it’s something that shouldn’t be overlooked in the mobile payments race. EWise, another payment provider, uses what it calls secure vault payments, a form of online banking epayments, to help users pay for things online and through their mobile phone. Users can log-in to their SVP at the time of check-out and quickly fund a purchase from their bank account at cheaper rates than credit card transactions.
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